The initiative of the right-wing SVP party, which sought to legally ban population growth above 10 million, openly challenged the country's current economic model. Supporters of a top-down cap argued that it was the only way to safeguard the stability of social systems and halt the crisis on the property market. The final results, however, reveal a deep division in society: 45.2% of voters were “in favour”, while 54.8% chose the “against” option.
There is no hiding the fact that the referendum had its hidden target – the largest group of immigrants, namely the Germans. It was around them that the strongest emotions built up, fuelled by the housing shortage and the rising cost of living, which create a sense of threat among native Swiss. Although the SVP avoided pointing the finger at specific nationalities, it was German citizens who would have felt the effects of the new rules first.
The legal consequences, however, would have been far broader. A success for the right could have triggered the guillotine clause, forcing Switzerland to renegotiate its agreements with the EU. As a result, the long-standing strategy of flexibly adapting to EU norms while preserving sovereignty would have had to be revised.
The divided political scene showed how difficult a subject this was. The right held on to its iron electorate, but the decisive factor turned out to be voters from the centre of the political spectrum. Although the cap fell through, the referendum itself was not merely a local plebiscite – it became a clear signal of a wider trend of reassessing migration policy across Europe.
The vote described in this text is the outcome of an official popular initiative under the name “For sustainable demographic development” (commonly known as “Keine 10-Millionen-Schweiz” / “No to a 10-million Switzerland”). The right-wing Swiss People's Party (SVP) gathered the required signatures for it and submitted the proposal to the Federal Chancellery in April 2024.
The mechanism of the proposal: The bill envisaged writing demographic limits directly into the Swiss constitution. Should the country's permanent population exceed 9.5 million before 2050, the Federal Council (the government) and parliament would be legally obliged to take immediate corrective measures (for example tightening asylum procedures or restricting family-reunification permits). If the threshold of 10 million were reached, Switzerland would have to terminate international agreements that facilitate migration.
What is the “guillotine clause”? It is a key legal mechanism contained in the Package of Bilateral Agreements I (Bilateralia I) negotiated between Switzerland and the European Union in 1999. This clause holds that the seven main agreements (including the one on the free movement of persons – FMPA) form an inseparable whole. If Switzerland were to unilaterally terminate or suspend the agreement on the free movement of persons (which the SVP initiative would force it to do once 10 million inhabitants were exceeded), all the remaining six agreements would automatically cease to apply within six months. This would mean the loss of, among other things, trade facilitations, access to public procurement markets and joint research programmes.
